Every year around Masters week the internet fills up with "15 trends that tell you who will win." The problem? None of it tells you where players are actually building form. Plus4 scores every lead-in event across the 16 weeks before Augusta — year by year — to answer one question: where did the players who succeeded at Augusta also outperform their own baseline? What you see below is what the data says.
Note: 2020 data has been excluded from this analysis. That year's Masters was held in November rather than April, and Augusta National's conditions — and the field's lead-in schedule — were materially different from a standard spring Masters.
Each line shows the running total of overperformance correlation across the 16 weeks before Augusta — stacking up week by week as Masters Sunday gets closer. A steep climb near the right means the signal gets stronger in the final weeks. A line that rises steadily from the start means sustained form across the whole window is what predicts Augusta success for that skill.
How sharp is each player's game heading into Augusta? These scores measure how much each player has outperformed their own normal level at courses that historically point to Masters performance. A higher number means they've been hitting it and scoring better than usual at the venues that tend to matter. Click any row to see their tournament-by-tournament breakdown.
| Player | OWGR | ★ Total SG | ★ Off Tee | Approach | Around Green | Putting |
|---|
★ = strong Augusta predictor · Each number is how many strokes per round a player outperformed their own norm, weighted by how predictive that tournament's course is for Augusta · ~wk N est. (in event detail) = no historical data for that course; estimated from how close it was to Masters week