Our model identifies corollary courses — venues that share playing characteristics with how this week's target course is expected to play — and uses a player's history at those analogues to infer likely performance here. Correlations are built at the individual skill level, so the model captures how each course independently rewards specific traits: Bermuda putting, left-to-right ball flight, scrambling from tight lies, grinding through deep rough.

Why this matters:

• No course history? No problem: Over a third of the field may never have played the target course. Corollary courses give us a signal where none previously existed.
• Go beyond the eye test: "Who's won here before" biases toward winners and elite players. This surfaces value across the whole field.
• A deeper analysis: Si Woo Kim's affinity for Pete Dye courses shows. Faders of the golf ball can rise and fall. Players who love Florida tend to love Hawaii — and the greats of Texas courses can handle wind-laden coastal tracks.
• Not all years are equal: Dustin Johnson's 2020 Masters wasn't like any other Masters. Our model profiles this week's course against current meteorological forecasts and expected playing conditions — then differentially weights vintages of the target course accordingly.